Regime shifts shorten food chains for mesopredators with potential sublethal effects

Regime shifts shorten food chains for 1 mesopredators with potential sublethal effects 2 3

Optimal management with potential regime shifts

We analyze how the threat of a potential future regime shift affects optimal management. We use a simple general growth model to analyze four cases that involve combinations of stock collapse versus changes in system dynamics, and exogenous versus endogenous probabilities of regime shift. Prior work has focused on stock collapse with endogenous probabilities and reaches ambiguous conclusions ab...

Resilience and Regime Shifts: Assessing Cascading Effects

Most accounts of thresholds between alternate regimes involve a single, dominant shift defined by one, often slowly changing variable in an ecosystem. This paper expands the focus to include similar dynamics in social and economic systems, in which multiple variables may act together in ways that produce interacting regime shifts in social-ecological systems. We use four different regions in th...

Irreversible investment with regime shifts

Under the real options approach to investment under uncertainty, agents formulate optimal policies under the assumption that firms’ growth prospects do not vary over time. This paper proposes and solves a model of investment decisions in which the growth rate and volatility of the decision variable shift between different states at random times. A value-maximizing investment policy is derived s...

Coral reef mesopredators switch prey, shortening food chains, in response to habitat degradation

Diet specificity is likely to be the key predictor of a predator's vulnerability to changing habitat and prey conditions. Understanding the degree to which predatory coral reef fishes adjust or maintain prey choice, in response to declines in coral cover and changes in prey availability, is critical for predicting how they may respond to reef habitat degradation. Here, we use stable isotope ana...